Virginia’s Governor Race Holds Clues for Control of Congress in 2022

Terry McAuliffe, the Democrat moving for politician of Virginia, distilled the predetermination into a azygous sentence.

“It each adds up to the aforesaid happening here: Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump,” helium said the different day.

Contests for politician successful Virginia person agelong been a barometer of the nationalist governmental temper a twelvemonth into a caller presidency. For Democrats, the stakes person ne'er seemed higher: A decision for Mr. McAuliffe, a fashionable erstwhile politician seeking his aged occupation back, could woody a devastating stroke to the party’s assurance heading into adjacent year’s midterms and to its strategy of moving against Mr. Trump adjacent erstwhile helium is not connected the ballot.

For Republicans the stakes are little fraught: Their nominee, Glenn Youngkin, a first-time candidate, could suffer narrowly fixed Virginia’s progressively bluish tinge but inactive correspond a impervious of conception that a G.O.P. campaigner tin unite the party’s moderates and hard-liners without going each successful connected Trumpism.

Whether it is Mr. McAuliffe hammering distant astatine Mr. Trump’s attempts to subvert the 2020 predetermination oregon Mr. Youngkin walking a Trump tightrope — nodding to the basal connected predetermination fraud, portion keeping the erstwhile president partially astatine arm’s magnitude — Mr. Trump has been an unavoidable origin successful the Virginia campaign.

The unexpectedly adjacent contest, which is efficaciously the opening enactment of the 2022 midterms, volition besides trial the 2 parties’ entreaty to the astir important and coveted voters nationwide — those successful populous and divers suburbs, who are wide expected to determine the Virginia contention arsenic good arsenic power of Congress adjacent year.

“I deliberation each Democrat is pursuing Virginia arsenic a bellwether,” Gordon Hintz, the Democratic person of Wisconsin’s State Assembly, said. “It decidedly acceptable the code successful 2017 for the 2018 cycle.”

Beyond the broad-brush strategies, each campaigner has landed connected a favourite contented successful the last 2 weeks earlier the Nov. 2 election, some of which are apt to diagnostic prominently successful races elsewhere. For Mr. McAuliffe, the contented is termination rights, recently nether menace successful the Supreme Court. For Mr. Youngkin, the contented is parental power of schools, which could broaden his entreaty to independents who abandoned the G.O.P. nether Mr. Trump.

Polls amusement a statistically tied race successful Virginia, with worrying implications for President Biden, who easy won the state. Democrats accidental they are battling stiff but impermanent headwinds: rising inflation, the lingering pandemic and an content of Democratic incompetency successful Washington, wherever the enactment has been successful a stalemate implicit passing its large home priorities.

“Youngkin, to his credit, has done a existent bully occupation of maintaining the loyalty of the Trump basal portion attempting to make immoderate suburban defections from the Democratic Party,’’ said Bob Holsworth, a longtime Virginia governmental analyst. “If a Republican tin triumph successful Virginia talking astir captious contention theory, astir his pro-life beliefs — a authorities Biden carried by 10 points — it would beryllium acold much than a wake-up telephone for Democrats. It would beryllium idiosyncratic playing reveille successful their bedrooms with a trumpet.”

Virginians, who ballot for politician a twelvemonth aft statesmanlike elections, person a agelong grounds of rebuking the enactment that holds the White House. Mr. McAuliffe’s triumph successful 2013, a twelvemonth aft President Barack Obama was re-elected, was the sole objection successful 4 decades. During the Trump years, the authorities swung adjacent much toward Democrats successful authorities and national elections, driven by college-educated voters successful the suburbs of Northern Virginia and Richmond who rejected the president’s divisive leadership.

Mr. Biden’s seizure of 54 percent of suburban voters nationally past twelvemonth was chiefly what enactment him successful the White House. Suburbanites tipped battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. They besides clasp the cardinal to the bulk of competitive House races successful 2022. Whether Democrats person earned suburbanites’ semipermanent allegiance oregon Mr. Biden simply “rented” them, arsenic strategists similar to enactment it, is simply a large question that the Virginia predetermination could assistance clarify.

Republicans deliberation they already cognize the answer. “The closeness of this contention suggests the suburban plaything elector is moving backmost to Republicans fast,’’ said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican ace PAC that focuses connected House races. “That is simply a informing motion for the galore incumbent Democrats successful plaything suburban districts.’’

But Democrats judge that fearfulness of Trumpism volition support the suburbs successful their corner. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, president of the Democrats’ 2022 legislature run arm, said precocious helium was advising members successful competitory suburban seats to tally against “Trump toxicity without Trump connected the ballot.”

“You’ve got to punctual them the different broadside is for insurrection, erstwhile we’re trying to bash infrastructure,” Mr. Maloney said, speaking to the wide podcast “Pod Save America.” “They’re for fighting, erstwhile we’re trying to hole problems.’’

From the beginning, Mr. McAuliffe’s playbook has been to fuse Mr. Youngkin with Mr. Trump successful voters’ minds. A caller TV advertisement this week tries to nexus Mr. Youngkin to the erstwhile president’s equivocation astir the achromatic supremacists who marched successful Charlottesville successful 2017.

Mr. McAuliffe was handed caller ammunition past week erstwhile Mr. Trump phoned successful an endorsement of Mr. Youngkin to a rally that began by reciting the Pledge of Allegiance utilizing a emblem that organizers said had been carried connected Jan. 6 successful Washington. Mr. McAuliffe pounced, and Mr. Youngkin, who had not attended the rally, issued a connection calling the usage of the emblem “weird and wrong.”

Mr. Youngkin has tried to straddle the party’s divisions, appealing to Mr. Trump’s devotees arsenic good arsenic to mean Republicans and independents. The enthusiasm borderline that immoderate polls amusement Virginia Republicans clasp implicit Democrats suggests helium has had immoderate occurrence successful uniting the party.

That’s not an casual feat. “Youngkin seems much adept astatine trying to debar Trump,’’ said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who is moving for respective Senate candidates successful competitory 2022 races. “The grade to which that is palmy volition beryllium a beardown awesome to tons of races astir the country.”

Mr. Youngkin began the wide predetermination emphasizing the accepted Republican issues of taxes and occupation creation, but helium is present aggressively leaning into blimpish attacks connected the mode contention is taught successful schools and connected giving parents much control.

A yearlong uproar successful Loudoun County, targeting schoolhouse committee members implicit policies astir radical equity and transgender students, suggests that Mr. Youngkin whitethorn beryllium capable to harness an contented that not lone turns retired conservatives, but persuades immoderate suburban moderates.

Jon Seaton, a Republican strategist from Virginia, said the schools contented was breaking done to suburban parents. “In my small absorption radical connected the sidelines of shot games connected weekends — I’m reasonably definite they didn’t ballot for Trump successful 2020 — astatine slightest immoderate are highly frustrated by what’s going connected successful the nationalist schools,’’ said Mr. Seaton, who consults for candidates astir the country. “It’s surely imaginable that education, for the archetypal clip successful a precise agelong time, becomes thing that Republican candidates tally on.’’

Pressing the issue, Mr. Youngkin has spent much than $1 cardinal connected a TV advertisement that plucks a connection of Mr. McAuliffe’s from a statement somewhat retired of context, successful which helium said, “I don’t deliberation parents should beryllium telling schools what they should teach.”

A Fox News poll of apt Virginia voters conducted past week showed a divided determination connected education. By a 23-point margin, parents among apt voters said they should person a accidental successful what schools teach. However, erstwhile asked which campaigner they backed, parents preferred Mr. McAuliffe 53 to 43 percent.

For Mr. McAuliffe’s part, termination is the contented helium has leaned into successful the race’s last stretch, spending heavy connected a TV advertisement showing hidden-camera video of Mr. Youngkin acknowledging that helium indispensable publically downplay his absorption to termination to triumph autarkic voters, but promising to spell “on offense” if elected.

A 2nd McAuliffe TV advertisement connected termination predicted that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe v. Wade and featured Mr. Youngkin saying helium opposed adding a close to an termination to Virginia’s constitution.

Historically, a single-minded absorption connected termination has driven mostly blimpish voters. Now that termination opponents look connected the brink of achieving what they person agelong sought, the powerfulness of the contented whitethorn displacement toward Democrats. Its quality to motivate voters is receiving a proceedings tally successful Virginia.