U.S. Warns Allies of Possible Russian Incursion as Troops Amass Near Ukraine

WASHINGTON — American quality officials are informing allies that determination is simply a abbreviated model of clip to forestall Russia from taking subject enactment successful Ukraine, pushing European countries to enactment with the United States to make a bundle of economical and subject measures to deter Moscow, according to American and European officials.

Russia has not yet decided what it intends to bash with the troops it has amassed adjacent Ukraine, American officials said, but the buildup is being taken earnestly and the United States is not assuming it is simply a bluff.

Avril D. Haines, the manager of nationalist intelligence, traveled to Brussels this week to little NATO ambassadors astir American quality connected the concern and a imaginable Russian subject involution successful Ukraine. Ms. Haines’s travel was agelong planned and covered a assortment issues, but the increasing concerns implicit Russia were among the short-term threats discussed, according to officials briefed connected them.

The United States has besides been sharing quality with Ukraine. And connected Friday, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the president of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commandant successful main of Ukraine’s military, to sermon Russia’s “concerning enactment successful the area,” the Joint Staff said successful a statement.

American and British quality are progressively convinced that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is considering subject enactment to instrumentality power of a larger swath of Ukraine, oregon to destabilize the state capable to usher successful a much pro-Moscow government.

American and allied officials sounded an alarm successful April, arsenic Moscow built up forces adjacent its borderline with Ukraine. But the existent buildup, which appears to impact much troops and blase weaponry, has engendered much concerns — peculiarly arsenic Russia has moved to jam Ukrainian surveillance drones. Hostilities person besides spiked since Ukraine used 1 of its drones to onslaught a separatist howitzer, prompting Russia to scramble jets.

“It’s not inevitable that there’s going to beryllium an summation of kinetic conflict, but each the pieces are successful place,” said Frederick B. Hodges, the erstwhile apical U.S. Army commandant successful Europe present with the Center for European Policy Analysis. “If we, the West, look similar we are not cohesive and acceptable to enactment together, past the hazard of the Kremlin making a unspeakable miscalculation goes up.”

American quality officials person told allies that Mr. Putin has grown frustrated with the bid process acceptable up by France and Germany successful 2014 aft Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and engineered a separatist rebellion successful eastbound Ukraine.

Some erstwhile officials accidental Mr. Putin could beryllium intent connected securing a onshore way betwixt eastbound Ukraine and Crimea. And American analysts judge Mr. Putin sees the adjacent fewer months arsenic a unsocial infinitesimal to act.

With Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany leaving the satellite stage, determination is little unit connected Ukraine to marque concessions. Without a conjugation successful Germany, determination is small enactment successful Berlin.

Rising vigor prices person made Europe much babelike connected inexpensive Russian state supplies, particularly arsenic wintertime deepens and state reserves successful Europe driblet further. Fear of losing entree to Russian vigor could bounds Europe’s enactment of pugnacious sanctions.

Russia has already begun manipulating vigor supplies successful Europe, a Western authoritative based successful Brussels said. When vigor prices rise, the authoritative said, Mr. Putin feels helium has much latitude to act.

And with rising prices and constricted supplies, Russia has much wealth to wage for subject operations, according to existent and erstwhile officials.

American officials privation to make a “common prescription” of actions the United States and Europe would take, should Russia determination against Ukraine militarily. While determination are parts of Russia’s system that person not been subjected to sanctions, the United States volition request to physique enactment successful Europe for caller measures to beryllium effective.

On Thursday, arsenic Ms. Haines was leaving Brussels, the Senate confirmed Julianne Smith to go the adjacent U.S. ambassador to NATO. Her information had been held up for months by Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, complicating American efforts to signifier a agreed effect to the increasing menace to Ukraine.

At NATO, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has offered his ain warnings astir Russia. Speaking successful Berlin connected Friday, Mr. Stoltenberg described the “large and unusual” attraction of Russian forces connected Ukraine’s border. “It is urgent that Russia shows transparency astir its subject physique up, de-escalate and trim tensions,” helium said.

Russia sent troops to a tract successful Crimea called Cape Opuk and moved a larger fig to a erstwhile warehouse analyzable adjacent the Russian municipality of Pavlovsk. The deployments enactment Russian tanks, howitzers and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles wrong striking region of Ukraine’s border, according to a caller study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Earlier successful the week, Lloyd J. Austin III, the caput of defense, besides said the Russian unit buildup was a substance of concern. “We’re not definite precisely what Mr. Putin is up to, but these movements surely person our attention,” helium said.

The increasing interest astir Russian intentions comes aft William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, traveled to Moscow this period astatine the behest of President Biden to pass against immoderate enactment against Ukraine.

American officials warned Russia that utilizing its forces to intimidate Ukraine oregon instrumentality much territory was unacceptable and would punctual a beardown absorption from the West.

While immoderate cautioned that it was excessively soon to justice Moscow’s reactions, others briefed connected the gathering believed Russia was not taking earnestly the menace of a pugnacious response.

Intelligence officials are inactive wrestling with the imaginable connections betwixt the migrant crisis connected the Polish-Belarusian border and Russia’s subject buildup connected the borderline with Ukraine.

Intelligence officials person not recovered nonstop engagement of Russia successful the Belarusian borderline crisis, and immoderate judge President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus engineered it with small oregon nary input from Russia.

On Friday, the Polish authorities announced that Ms. Haines had met successful Warsaw with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and different officials to sermon information connected NATO’s “eastern flank.” The meetings, the authorities said, were conducted astatine the petition of the United States.

Mr. Putin has a agelong past of utilizing play successful neighboring countries to beforehand his ain interests. NATO countries, said the Western official, request to beryllium mindful that the Belarusian situation and unit buildup connected Ukraine’s borderline are occurring astatine the aforesaid time.

“Putin is precise fleet of foot,” said Jim Townsend, a erstwhile elder Pentagon official. “I deliberation helium likes diversionary things. This plays into his hands. All eyes are connected the Belarus border. Meanwhile, helium is putting unneurotic what helium feels mightiness request to spell into Ukraine.”

Any effect to Russia’s deployments should beryllium cautiously calibrated to debar escalating the concern and further endangering Ukraine, American and European officials said.

“We person to beryllium acceptable to beryllium tough,” Mr. Townsend said. “We don’t person to spell weaponry something. But we person to beryllium clever successful however we amusement our subject capability.”